Negotiations between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia on the Nile River have deadlocked — Where to from here?

Negotiations between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia regarding the Nile River have deadlocked. The elephant in the room in these ongoing negotiations has been the construction of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD). The 4 Billion USD hydroelectric dam is on the Blue Nile River, in Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia about 15 km east of Ethiopia-Sudan boarder. Egypt is concerned that the dam will negatively impact the flow of the Nile into Egypt. After years of informal talks, tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt have intensified. On 29 January 2018, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Sudanese counterpart former Omar Hassan al-Bashir met the former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn on the sidelines of an African Union (AU) summit in Addis Ababa. The meeting was to kick start a process of engagement in respect of the Nile. According to Reuters news agency, the three leaders “ instructed their water and energy ministers to draw up a report that will thrash out ways to resolve all outstanding issues regarding the dam.” The Nile consists of two tributaries, the White Nile which is considered to be the headwater and the Blue Nile its main water source. The source of the White Nile is in the Great Lakes of Africa between Rwanda and Burundi and the tributary of the Blue Nile is lake Tana in Ethiopia, it contributes over 80% of the Nile. The White and the Blue Niles converge in Khartoum, Sudan and flow downstream to Egypt. Egypt relies on 55bn cubic metres of water it receives from the Nile, about 93% of 94 million Egyptians live along the river.

There have been a number of treaties between countries sharing the Nile over the years. The majority of those treaties excluded the main player, Ethiopia. Ethiopia has for a long period lacked political stability and muscle, leading to its political neglect and isolation on key decisions on the Nile. However over the years the economic and political fortunes of Ethiopia have changed the status of Ethiopia in geopolitics. Egypt has insisted on referring to the 1959 agreement with Sudan on its claim and share of the Nile. The 1955 agreement, a supplement of previous agreements gives Egypt the right to 55.5 billion cubic meters of Nile water a year and Sudan 18.5 billion cubic meters per year. Addis Ababa argues that Sudan and Egypt divided the flow of the water without taking its needs into account. Egypt has tried to appeal to Ethiopian logic, often with little success. It has argued that Ethiopia receives over 510 mm of rainfall annually whilst it has to fend with meager 200mm of rainfall for its 94 million population.

Since the toppling of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt has changed its tone, it has upped its threats aimed at Ethiopia. Abdel Fattah Al Sisi told the Financial Times in Dec. 2017 that the “the Nile is a matter of life and death” for Egypt. His predecessor former Mohammad Morsi was less relenting on the subject, he vowed “if the Nile diminishes by one drop then our blood is the alternative”. The chain of inflammatory statements have not made the situation easier, instead it has led to Ethiopia digging its heels when dealing with Egypt on the subject.

The construction of the dam is almost complete. There is also a heightened level of national pride in Ethiopia in respect of the dam, the mantra within the public discourse is that “the dam was funded by Ethiopians for Ethiopians”. These two important factors makes it difficult to imagine Ethiopia reversing its plans regarding the dam. What is the way forward? There are several obstacle that need to be dealt with before anything constructive is realised. First, Egypt will have to change its attitude towards Africans. Ethiopian decried an incident which took place in May 2016 during the United Nations Environmental Assembly in Addis Ababa. The head of the African Diplomatic Corps instituted a formal protest to the assembly after the head of the Egyptian delegation, Mohamad Hisham Shoeir allegedly called Africans “ dogs and slaves” Furthermore, Ethiopia has a right to its national sovereignty, ownership of land and its resources. The Nile River does not only belong to Sudan and Egypt. Pre-colonial racist treaties which for years only benefited Sudan and Egypt must be repealed to include all nations sharing the Nile.