Another tumultuous night in the politics of Saudi Arabia

The death of King Abdullah in January 2015 resuscitated a debate about reforms in Saudi Arabia. Many suggested at the time that perhaps the inclusion of younger princes in the leadership of the kingdom might hasten reforms. There were welcoming sentiments across the region when the 54-year-old Prince Mohammed bin Nayef was appointed the Crown Prince in January 2015. The appointment of Bin Nayef, a younger person in Saudi leadership standards, suggested that indeed Saudi royalty was moving towards reforms. The rise of Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a favorite son of King Salman first as the Minister of Defense and later in charge of the economic transformation process further confirmed those sentiments.

In June, 2017 during the Holy month of Ramadan the world woke up to news that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and United Arab Emirates (UAE) had imposed a land, sea and road blockade against the state of Qatar. It was an overnight decision which left most people flabbergasted. Soon after that on 21 June 2017 the former Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Nayef was sacked from his position as the Crown Prince, he was replaced by Prince Mohammad bin Salman. These were unprecedented political occurrences. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is relatively popular amongst the young people in Saudi Arabia, many youth identify themselves with Bin Salman. He was born and bred in Saudi Arabia and spent his entire youth and university years inside the country. Most rich families send their children overseas to study, King Salman kept his son inside Saudi Arabia. Crown Prince Bin Salman’s proposed reforms which include the privatization of the oil giant Aramco, the biggest company in the Arab world. The privatization has the prospect of providing employment and socioeconomic development in the kingdom. These future prospects have added to his popularity within the country’s youth. However he seems exasperated by the religious leadership which still dominate social and political spaces in Saudi Arabia. His tone and attitude suggest that he sees it as an impediment to his reform programs and leadership. Over the past couple of months he has detained a number of prominent Muslim clergy. His swift and flimsy manner in which he is applying reforms has inevitably invited criticism including from some members of his family. The decision for an example to endorse the construction of a bikini beach resort in the Red sea remains a sticking point within many conservatives. Equally the decision to allow women to drive has gained him good media coverage and added to his popularity. Notwithstanding, his political immaturity and inexperience continue to manifest themselves in various ways.

The cracking down on dissent took another turn on 04 November 2017. Scores of princes, politicians and several prominent members of the Saudi society were arrested, amongst them Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal. Prince Talal is one of the richest men in the world, his arrest came moments after the creation of the Anti Corruption Committee which is headed by Mohammad Bin Salman. Strangely, amidst the ongoing political confusion, President Donald Trump sent a tweet urging Saudi Arabia to list Aramco in the New York Stork Exchange. “Would very much appreciate Saudi Arabia doing their IPO of Aramco with the New York Stock Exchange. Important to the United States!”

Hours after the announcement of the launch of the Anti Corruption Committee reports emerged that a rocket directed at Saudi Arabia by the Houthis in Sanaa was intercepted in the outskirts of Riyadh. What was suspicious about the news reports was that they also alleged that certain regional leaders inside the kingdom were collaborating with the Houthis. It sounded like a pretext of something major that was about to happen. These events were flanked by other occurrences in the region. The Prime Minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri announced his resignation from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia as the prime minister sighting assassination plans against him. In his resignation speech Hariri accused Iran of meddling in the affairs of his country. After the announcement the social media in Lebanon was abuzz with comments. Some joked, likening Hariri’s resignation as “divorcing through a Whatspp text message”. It remains a mystery why Hariri decided to make such an important announcement from Riyadh. In the meantime the security apparatus in Lebanon disputed his allegations on Sunday “there is no evidence of any assassination attempts against Hariri.” Furthermore the president of Lebanon Michel Aoun said in a statement that he would not accept Hariri’s resignation until he returns to Lebanon. Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah lambasted Hariri’s resignation calling it a “forced speech dictated to Hariri by Saudi Arabia”. Meanwhile, Bahrain also resurrected an old boarder dispute with Qatar. The dispute was settled by the intervention of the International Court of Justice in the past. According to Al Jazeera English “in 1991, Qatar referred the dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), after decades of failed Saudi mediation and a narrowly avoided armed confrontation between the two countries. The issue was resolved in 2001 when the ICJ, the principal judicial branch of the United Nations.” The Hareetz newspaper also reported that “ a helicopter carrying a high-ranking Saudi prince and other government officials crashed Sunday in the kingdom’s south near the border with Yemen, reportedly killing all eight people aboard.”

The events of the past weekend in the Gulf remain extremely confusing, suffice to say they are just too much of a coincidence. The order in which they occurred suggest some sort of coordination. They also give an indication of things to come, a level of impunity and disregard of the due course of the law in Saudi Arabia. Indeed some of those detained might just be guilty. However history reminds that reforms which begin with cracking down on dissent never prosper. How can an Anti Corruption Committee be able to detain so many people hours after its launch? It makes mockery of the justice system, it reduces the credibility of the “reforms” in Saudi Arabia to a witch hunt. The events of the past 36 hours also expose the political naiveté of the Crown Prince in a region which is in dire need of quality political leadership.